2022 was an extraordinary year for venture, with $238b in capital invested, more than any full year on record except 2021, while simultaneously reaching the same heights of investor-friendliness in the deal environment as during the peak in 2021.

In this buyer's market, it is essential for thematic investors like Ascend to seek clarity on the deep-seated trends we're tracking, ultimately to drive our investment appetites.

Below are the global trends shaping our perspective as we head into 2023. They span logistics/supply chain, fintech, energy systems, telecom, corporate innovation, and much more. Together, they inform our outlook on the most opportune arenas for investment in the coming year.

Humanism

In the age of humans, if it feels good, we do it. People know best what’s good for themselves. Rising demand for convenience and flexibility has brought about the decline of rigid work/social routines that compromise employee unicorn time. Hybrid work models and gig work platforms are breaking the mold of traditional employment. At the same time, innovations in e-commerce and fulfillment that enable efficiency are consistently outpacing competing services. We’re tracking human-centric developments in this chapter of the long arc of humanism.

• Identity-affirming innovation

• Choice maximizers

• Flexibility tooling

• Enhanced productivity platforms

• Convenient delivery tools

Experiences

What do AirBnB, birthday cakes, and NFTs have in common? They’re all powered by social shareability, a trend that's snowballing in market value and gatecrashing all aspects of the economy. Experiences have risen in value while consumables have steadily slid toward commoditization. We’re following innovations that are powering these realms.

• Experience economy tools

• Enduring value platforms

• Tribe-focused-curation infrastructure

• Audience-centric innovation

• Personalization tooling

Fasterism

Gone are the days when you had to pick two options among fast, cheap, and quality—the expectation now is that everything should be available fast, free, and perfect. Immediate promotion on a global scale means the pace of arrival and passing of fads has accelerated, making it harder for conglomerates to respond quickly enough to keep up. We’re looking to back concepts that facilitate the speed of corporate innovation to match the quickening pace of trends.

• Food/fashion/CPG innovation platforms

• Vertical custom entertainment enablement

• Logistics coordination infrastructure

• On/Nearshoring software tooling

• Distributed optimization & monitoring tools

Climate risk 

Extreme weather events have been steadily increasing in frequency and intensity over the last 50 years, no longer relegated to named natural disasters; lesser weather events like excessive rainfall, freezing, and drought now account for nearly half of insured losses. These challenges present a new engine of opportunity in mitigating the effects of—and servicing our response to—the changing environment. We’re keeping an eye out as foundational technologies emerge as the world wakes up to the reality of climate change.

• Risk sharing/transfer innovation

• Resilience/optimization tooling

• Grid function virtualization

• Interoperability infrastructure

• Node/Transmission data platforms

Tightening

The inflationary environment may be creating unfamiliar conditions for recent generations, but the flow of innovation isn't affected by interest rates. Battling inflation with rising interest rates has ruffled financed property values, boosting markets for additional income schemes and low-spend improvements. We’re watching closely for startups entering these new markets from the fray.

• Seamless, global monetization tools

• Accessibility enablers

• Asset sharing platforms

• Financed improvement innovation

• Consolidation/collective bargaining tooling

Faster, cheaper, greener, lasting, flexy - these universal trends are creating both challenges and opportunities for the business environment, fueling appetites for data and driving tech advancements in generative AI and web3.  Against the backdrop of an all-time dealmaking market, it’s an exciting time to be investing in early-stage startups!

Image by Mark Basarab